2021
Ball, E., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Thomson, S. & Vallis, G. 2021. The roles of latent heating and dust in the structure and variability of the northern Martian polar vortex. The Planetary Science Journal. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac1ba2
Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T., Watson, P., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091990
Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Christidis, N., T. & Kendon, E. 2021. Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn. Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100340
Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Mitchell, D. & Collins, M. 2021. Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions. Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00094-x
Funk. C, Hoell, A. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Editorial: Climate Science Advances to Address 21st Century Weather and Climate Extremes. Frontiers in Climate. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.680291
Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2021. Persistent model biases in the CMIP6 representation of stratospheric polar vortex variability. JGR: Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034759
Hitchcock, P.,…Mitchell, D. (7th) et al. 2021. Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394
Howard, G.,…Lo, E.(8th) et al. 2021. The how tough is WASH framework for assessing the climate resilience of water and sanitation. npj Clean Water. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-021-00130-5
Lo, E. & Mitchell, D. 2021. How will climate change affect UK heatwaves? Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4061
Mitchell, D. 2021. Climate attribution of heat mortality. Nature Climate Change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01049-y
Mitchell, D., Scott, R., Seviour, W., Thomson, S., Waugh, D., Teanby, N. & Ball, E. 2021. Polar vortices in planetary atmospheres. Review of Geophysics. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000723
Moseley, G., Edwards, R., Lord, N., Spotl, C. & Cheng, H. 2021. Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe1260
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Stone, E., Mitchell, D., Rosier, S., King, A., Lo, E., Pastor-Paz, J., Frame, D. & Wehner, M. 2021.On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8
Simpson, C., Hosking, J., Mitchell, D., Betts, R. & Shuckburgh, E. 2021. Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288. 2021
Wright, C., Hall, R., Banyard, T., Hindley, N., Mitchell, D. & Seviour, W. 2021. Dynamical and Surface Impacts of the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in Novel Aeolus Wind Observations, MLS and ERA5. Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-16
Zhang, M., Mitchell, D. & Thompson, V. 2021. Violence and mental health are likely to get worse in a warming world. Conversation.
Ballinger, T., Hanna, E., Hall, R. et al. 2020. The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6879
Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2020. Tracking the stratosphere‐to‐surface impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033881
Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S., Mote, T., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. & Hall, R. 2020. Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771
Jian, D., Ma, Z., Chen, L., Duan, J., Mitchell, D., Zheng, Z., Lv, M. & Zhang, H. 2020. Effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of Warming on Regional Reference Evapotranspiration and Drying: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6667
Kennedy-Asser, A., Andrews, O., Mitchell, D. & Warren, R. 2020. Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad
Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Bohnenstengel, S., Collins, M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Joshi, M. & Stott, P. 2020. UK Climate Projections: Summer daytime and night-time urban heat island changes in England’s major cities. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1
Mitchell, D., Allen, M., Ebi, K., Gasparrini, C., Heaviside, C., Lo, E. & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. 2020. Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1113-z
Mitchell, D., Lo, E., Seviour, W., Haimberger, L. & Polvani, L. 2020. The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7
Overland, J., Hall, R., Hanna, E., Karpechko, A., Vihma, T., Wang, M., Zhang, X. 2020. The Polar Vortex and Extreme Weather: The Beast from the East in Winter 2018. Atmosphere. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060664
Scott, R., Seviour, W. & Waugh, D. 2020. Forcing of the Martian polar annulus by Hadley cell transport and latent heating. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3786
Sharkey, J., Teanby, N., Sylvestre, M., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Nixon, C. & Irwin, P. 2020. Mapping the Zonal Structure of Titan’s Northern Polar Vortex. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.113441
Sharkey, J., Teanby, N., Sylvester, M., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Nixon, C. & Irwin, P. 2020. Potential vorticity structure of Titan’s polar vortices from Cassini CIRS observations. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2020.114030
Shiogama, H., Hirata, R., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Ishizaki, N. Chatani, S., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D. & Lo, E. 2020. Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Nino events occur. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
Takeshima, A., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Lierhammer, L., Scinocca, J., Seland, O. & Mitchell, D. 2020. Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9db3/meta
Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P., Allen, M., Betts, R., Huntingford, C., King, A., Sanderson, B. & Shiogama, H. 2020. Method-uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections. AMS. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee
Vosper, E., Mitchell, D. & Emanuel, K. 2020. Extreme Hurricane Rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the Paris Agreement Goals. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794
Walker, E., Mitchell, D. & Seviour, W. 2020. The numerous approaches to tracking extratropical cyclones and the challenges they present. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3861
2019
Gaupp, F., Hall, J., Mitchell, D. & Dadson, S. 2019. Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2°C global warming. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010
Huntingford, C., Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D., Osprey, S. & Allen, M. 2019. Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world. Atmospheric Science Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.929
Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Ebi, K., Frumhoff, P., Millar, R., Roberts, W., Sera, F., Sparrow, S., Uhe, P. & Williams, G. 2019. Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances. http://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
Madakumbura, G.,…Mitchell, D. (8th) et al. 2019. Event-to-event intensification of hydrologic cycle in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39936-2
Marthews, T., Jones, R., Dadson, S., Otto, F., Mitchell, D., Guillod, B. & Allen, M. 2019. The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa. JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030085
Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Huntingford, C. & Uhe, P. 2019. The day the 2003 European heatwave record was broken. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30106-8
Seviour, W., et al. 2019. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature response to ozone depletion: A multi-model comparison, Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0109.1
Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P., Sampson, C., Smith, A. & Islam, A. 2019. Enhanced flood risk with 1.5C global warming in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. ERL. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee
Vosper, E*., Walker, E*., Betts, R., Challinor, A., Fowler, H. & Mitchell. D. 2019. Building a UK Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment Community. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3592 (* Joint first authors)
2018
Baker, H.,…Mitchell, D. (6th), et al. 2018. Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1
Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. 2018. 2019. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6104
Grose, M., Black, B., Risbey, J., Uhe, P., Hope, P., Haustein, K. & and Mitchell, D. 2018. Severe Frosts in Western Australia in September 2016. American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0088.1
Hirsch, A.,…Mitchell, D. (10th), et al. 2018. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land. Earth’s Future. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000744
Hoegh-Guldberg, O.,…Mitchell, D. (contributing author), et al. 2018. Chapter 3 – Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf
Hosking, J., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. & Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78
King, A., Donat, M., Lewis, S., Henley, B., Mitchell, D., Stott, P., Fischer, E. & Karoly, D. 2018. Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0191-0
Li, C.,…Mitchell, D. (13th) et al. 2018. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5°C and 2°C warming and implications for regional impacts. Earth System Dynamics. http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018
Liu, W.,…Mitchell, D. (4th) et al. 2018. Global Freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impact under 1.5˚C and 2˚C stabilization scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters. http://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789
Mitchell, D., et al. 2018. Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1
Mitchell, D., et al. 2018. The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.006
Seneviratne, S.,…Mitchell, D. (16th) et al. 2018. Climate extremes, land– climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450
Vicedo-Cabrera, A.,…Mitchell, D. (7th) et al. 2018. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3
Wehner, M.,…Mitchell, D. (3rd) et al. 2018. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018
Zülicke, C., Becker, E., Matthias, V., Peters, D., Schmidt, H., Liu, H., Ramos, L. & and Mitchell, D. 2018. Coupling of Stratospheric Warmings with Mesospheric Coolings in Observations and Simulations. J. Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0047.1
2017
King, A., Knutti, R., Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Lewis, S., Arblaster, J. & Freychet, N. 2017. On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0649.1
Lewis, S., King, A. & Mitchell, D. 2017. Australia’s Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074612
Lewis, S., King, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. & Mitchell, D. 2017. Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5°C and 2°C of global mean warming. Weather and Climate Extremes. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100233