2022

Dessai, S., Fowler, H., Hall, J. & Mitchell, D. 2022. UK Climate Risk Assessment and Management. Climate Risk Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100440. In press.

Falloon, P., Bebber, D., Dalin, C., Ingram, J., Mitchell, D., Hartley, T., Johnes, P., Newbold, T., Challinor, A. & Finch, J. 2022. What do changing weather and climate shocks and stresses mean for the UK food system? Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394. Accepted.

Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Lord, N., Lo, E., Mitchell, D. & Collins, M. 2022. Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9

Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2022. How Well Are Sudden Stratospheric Warming Surface Impacts Captured in CMIP6 Climate Models? JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394

Hitchcock, P.,…Mitchell, D. (7th) et al. 2022. Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394. Preprint.

Kennedy-Asser, A., Owen, G., Griffith, G., Andrews, O., Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Jenkins, K. & Warren, R. 2022. Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac541a

Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Thompson, R., O’Connell, E. & Gasparrini, A. 2022. Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for public health. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4cf4

Mitchell, D. et al. 2022. Increased population exposure to Amphan-scale cyclones under future climates. Climate Resilience and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.36

Mitchell, D. & Lo, E. 2022. Downplaying the catastrophic health impact of heatwaves costs lives. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o1940

Mitchell, D., Stone, E., et al. 2022. The Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4161

Nijhawan, A., Howard, G., Poudel, M., Pregnolato, M., Lo, E. et al. 2022. Assessing the climate resilience of community-managed water supplies in Ethiopia and Nepal. Water. Accepted

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Stone, D., Mitchell, D., Rosier, S., King, D., Lo, E., Pastor-Paz, J., Frame, D. & Wehner, M. 2022. On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8

Thomas, J., Stone, E., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Barnes, C., Bloomfield, H., Crook, J., Jones, H. & MacLeod, C. 2022. Organising a collaborative online hackathon for cutting-edge climate research. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4199

Thompson, V., Kennedy-Asser, A., Vosper, E., Lo, E., Huntingford, C., Andrews, O., Collins, A., Hegerl, G. & Mitchell, D. 2022. The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally. Sciences Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm6860 

2021

Ball, E., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Thomson, S. & Vallis, G. 2021. The roles of latent heating and dust in the structure and variability of the northern Martian polar vortex. The Planetary Science Journal. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac1ba2

Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T., Watson, P., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091990

Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Christidis, N., T. & Kendon, E. 2021. Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn. Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100340

Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Mitchell, D. & Collins, M. 2021. Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions. Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00094-x

Funk. C, Hoell, A. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Editorial: Climate Science Advances to Address 21st Century Weather and Climate Extremes. Frontiers in Climate. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.680291

Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2021. Persistent model biases in the CMIP6 representation of stratospheric polar vortex variability. JGR: Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034759

Howard, G.,…Lo, E.(8th)  et al. 2021. The how tough is WASH framework for assessing the climate resilience of water and sanitation. NPJ Clean Water. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-021-00130-5

Lo, E. & Mitchell, D. 2021. How will climate change affect UK heatwaves? Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4061

Mitchell, D. 2021. Climate attribution of heat mortality. Nature Climate Change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01049-y

Mitchell, D., Scott, R., Seviour, W., Thomson, S., Waugh, D., Teanby, N. & Ball, E. 2021. Polar vortices in planetary atmospheres. Review of Geophysics. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000723  

Moseley, G., Edwards, R., Lord, N., Spotl, C. & Cheng, H. 2021. Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe1260

Simpson, C., Hosking, J., Mitchell, D., Betts, R. & Shuckburgh, E. 2021. Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288

Wright, C., Hall, R., Banyard, T., Hindley, N., Mitchell, D. & Seviour, W. 2021. Dynamical and Surface Impacts of the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in Novel Aeolus Wind Observations, MLS and ERA5. Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-16

Zhang, M., Mitchell, D. & Thompson, V. 2021. Violence and mental health are likely to get worse in a warming world. Conversation.

2020

Ballinger, T., Hanna, E., Hall, R. et al. 2020. The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6879

Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2020. Tracking the stratosphere‐to‐surface impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033881

Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S., Mote, T., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. & Hall, R. 2020. Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771

Jian, D., Ma, Z., Chen, L., Duan, J., Mitchell, D., Zheng, Z., Lv, M. & Zhang, H. 2020. Effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of Warming on Regional Reference Evapotranspiration and Drying: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6667

Kennedy-Asser, A., Andrews, O., Mitchell, D. & Warren, R. 2020. Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad

Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Bohnenstengel, S., Collins, M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Joshi, M. & Stott, P. 2020. UK Climate Projections: Summer daytime and night-time urban heat island changes in England’s major cities. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1

Mitchell, D., Allen, M., Ebi, K., Gasparrini, C., Heaviside, C., Lo, E. & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. 2020. Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1113-z

Mitchell, D., Lo, E., Seviour, W., Haimberger, L. & Polvani, L. 2020. The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7

Overland, J., Hall, R., Hanna, E., Karpechko, A., Vihma, T., Wang, M., Zhang, X. 2020. The Polar Vortex and Extreme Weather: The Beast from the East in Winter 2018. Atmosphere. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060664

Scott, R., Seviour, W. & Waugh, D. 2020. Forcing of the Martian polar annulus by Hadley cell transport and latent heating. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3786

Sharkey, J., Teanby, N., Sylvestre, M., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Nixon, C. & Irwin, P. 2020. Mapping the Zonal Structure of Titan’s Northern Polar Vortex. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.113441

Sharkey, J., Teanby, N., Sylvester, M., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Nixon, C. & Irwin, P. 2020. Potential vorticity structure of Titan’s polar vortices from Cassini CIRS observations. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2020.114030

Shiogama, H., Hirata, R., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Ishizaki, N. Chatani, S., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D. & Lo, E. 2020. Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Nino events occur. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020

Takeshima, A., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Lierhammer, L., Scinocca, J., Seland, O. & Mitchell, D. 2020. Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5°C  and 2°C warming. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9db3/meta

Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P., Allen, M., Betts, R., Huntingford, C., King, A., Sanderson, B. & Shiogama, H. 2020. Method-uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections. AMS. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee

Vosper, E., Mitchell, D. & Emanuel, K. 2020. Extreme Hurricane Rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the Paris Agreement Goals. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794

Walker, E., Mitchell, D. & Seviour, W. 2020. The numerous approaches to tracking extratropical cyclones and the challenges they present. Weather.   https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3861

2019

Gaupp, F., Hall, J., Mitchell, D. & Dadson, S. 2019. Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2°C global warming. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010

Huntingford, C., Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D., Osprey, S. & Allen, M. 2019. Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world. Atmospheric Science Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.929

Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Ebi, K., Frumhoff, P., Millar, R., Roberts, W., Sera, F., Sparrow, S., Uhe, P. & Williams, G. 2019. Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances. http://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373 

Madakumbura, G.,…Mitchell, D. (8th) et al. 2019. Event-to-event intensification of hydrologic cycle in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39936-2

Marthews, T., Jones, R., Dadson, S., Otto, F., Mitchell, D., Guillod, B. & Allen, M. 2019. The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa. JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030085

Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Huntingford, C. & Uhe, P. 2019. The day the 2003 European heatwave record was broken. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30106-8  

Seviour, W., et al. 2019. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature response to ozone depletion: A multi-model comparison. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0109.1

Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P., Sampson, C., Smith, A. & Islam, A. 2019. Enhanced flood risk with 1.5C global warming in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. ERL. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee

Vosper, E*., Walker, E*., Betts, R., Challinor, A., Fowler, H. & Mitchell. D. 2019. Building a UK Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment Community. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3592 (* Joint first authors)

2018

Baker, H.,…Mitchell, D. (6th), et al. 2018. Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1

Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. 2018. 2019. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6104

Grose, M., Black, B., Risbey, J., Uhe, P., Hope, P., Haustein, K. & and Mitchell, D. 2018. Severe Frosts in Western Australia in September 2016. American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0088.1

Hirsch, A.,…Mitchell, D. (10th), et al. 2018. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land. Earth’s Future. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000744

Hoegh-Guldberg, O.,…Mitchell, D. (contributing author), et al. 2018. Chapter 3 – Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf

Hosking, J., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. & Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78

King, A., Donat, M., Lewis, S., Henley, B., Mitchell, D., Stott, P., Fischer, E. & Karoly, D. 2018. Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0191-0

Li, C.,…Mitchell, D. (13th) et al. 2018. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5°C and 2°C warming and implications for regional impacts. Earth System Dynamics. http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018

Liu, W.,…Mitchell, D. (4th) et al. 2018. Global Freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impact under 1.5˚C and 2˚C stabilization scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters. http://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789

Mitchell, D., et al. 2018. Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1

Mitchell, D., et al. 2018. The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.006 

Seneviratne, S.,…Mitchell, D. (16th) et al. 2018. Climate extremes, land– climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.,…Mitchell, D. (7th) et al. 2018. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3

Wehner, M.,…Mitchell, D. (3rd) et al. 2018. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018

Zülicke, C., Becker, E., Matthias, V., Peters, D., Schmidt, H., Liu, H., Ramos, L. & and Mitchell, D. 2018. Coupling of Stratospheric Warmings with Mesospheric Coolings in Observations and Simulations. J. Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0047.1

2017

King, A., Knutti, R., Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Lewis, S., Arblaster, J. & Freychet, N. 2017. On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0649.1

Lewis, S., King, A. & Mitchell, D. 2017. Australia’s Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074612

Lewis, S., King, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. & Mitchell, D. 2017. Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5°C and 2°C of global mean warming. Weather and Climate Extremes. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100233