2022

Mitchell, D. & Lo, E. 2022. Downplaying the catastrophic health impact of heatwaves costs lives. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.o1940

Taguela, T.N.,…James, R. (4th) et al. 2022. Low-level circulation over Central Equatorial Africa as simulated from CMIP5 to CMIP6 models. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06411-0

Otto, F.E.L.,…James, R. (7th) et al. 2022. Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative. Global Policy. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13113

Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Lord, N., Lo, E., Mitchell, D. & Collins, M. 2022. Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac71b9

Dessai, S., Fowler, H., Hall, J. & Mitchell, D. 2022. UK Climate Risk Assessment and Management. Climate Risk Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100440. In press.

Mitchell, D. et al. 2022. Increased population exposure to Amphan-scale cyclones under future climates. Climate Resilience and Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.36

Thompson, V., Kennedy-Asser, A., Vosper, E., Lo, E., Huntingford, C., Andrews, O., Collins, A., Hegerl, G. & Mitchell, D. 2022. The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally. Sciences Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm6860 

Nijhawan, A.,…Lo, E. (5th) et al. 2022. Assessing the climate resilience of community-managed water supplies in Ethiopia and Nepal. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14081293

Thomas, J., Stone, E., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Barnes, C., Bloomfield, H., Crook, J., Jones, H. & MacLeod, C. 2022. Organising a collaborative online hackathon for cutting-edge climate research. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4199

Mitchell, D., Stone, E., et al. 2022. The Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4161

Kennedy-Asser, A., Owen, G., Griffith, G., Andrews, O., Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Jenkins, K. & Warren, R. 2022. Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac541a

Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Thompson, R., O’Connell, E. & Gasparrini, A. 2022. Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for public health. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4cf4

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Stone, D., Mitchell, D., Rosier, S., King, D., Lo, E., Pastor-Paz, J., Frame, D. & Wehner, M. 2022. On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac44c8

Falloon, P., Bebber, D., Dalin, C., Ingram, J., Mitchell, D., Hartley, T., Johnes, P., Newbold, T., Challinor, A. & Finch, J. 2022. What do changing weather and climate shocks and stresses mean for the UK food system? Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394. Preprint

Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2022. How Well Are Sudden Stratospheric Warming Surface Impacts Captured in CMIP6 Climate Models? JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394

Hitchcock, P.,…Mitchell, D. (7th) et al. 2022. Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI): A Protocol for Investigating the Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Geoscientific Model Development. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2021-394. Preprint.

2021

Mitchell, D., Scott, R., Seviour, W., Thomson, S., Waugh, D., Teanby, N. & Ball, E. 2021. Polar vortices in planetary atmospheres. Review of Geophysics. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000723  

Simpson, C., Hosking, J., Mitchell, D., Betts, R. & Shuckburgh, E. 2021. Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288

Zhang, M., Mitchell, D. & Thompson, V. 2021. Violence and mental health are likely to get worse in a warming world. Conversation.

Ball, E., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Thomson, S. & Vallis, G. 2021. The roles of latent heating and dust in the structure and variability of the northern Martian polar vortex. The Planetary Science Journal. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac1ba2

Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Christidis, N., T. & Kendon, E. 2021. Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn. Weather and Climate Extremes. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100340

Lo, E. & Mitchell, D. 2021. How will climate change affect UK heatwaves? Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4061

Howard, G.,…Lo, E.(8th)  et al. 2021. The how tough is WASH framework for assessing the climate resilience of water and sanitation. NPJ Clean Water. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-021-00130-5

Funk. C, Hoell, A. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Editorial: Climate Science Advances to Address 21st Century Weather and Climate Extremes. Frontiers in Climate. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.680291

Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2021. Persistent model biases in the CMIP6 representation of stratospheric polar vortex variability. JGR: Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034759

Senior, C.A.,…James,R. (22nd) et al. 2021. Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Change Simulations for Understanding Future Climate and Informing Decision-Making in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0020.1

Mitchell, D. 2021. Climate attribution of heat mortality. Nature Climate Change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01049-y

Wright, C., Hall, R., Banyard, T., Hindley, N., Mitchell, D. & Seviour, W. 2021. Dynamical and Surface Impacts of the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in Novel Aeolus Wind Observations, MLS and ERA5. Weather and Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-16

Bevacqua, E., Shepherd, T., Watson, P., Sparrow, S., Wallom, D. & Mitchell, D. 2021. Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091990

Moseley, G., Edwards, R., Lord, N., Spotl, C. & Cheng, H. 2021. Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland. Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abe1260

Siderius, C.,…James, R. (13th) et al. 2021. Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa. One Earth. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.009

Kolusu, S.R.,…James, R. (6th) et al. 2021. Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02991-8

Freychet, N., Hegerl, G., Mitchell, D. & Collins, M. 2021. Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions. Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00094-x

Sharkey, J., Teanby, N., Sylvester, M., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Nixon, C. & Irwin, P. 2020. Potential vorticity structure of Titan’s polar vortices from Cassini CIRS observations. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2020.114030

2020

Hall, R., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W. & Wright, C. 2020. Tracking the stratosphere‐to‐surface impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033881

Mitchell, D., Allen, M., Ebi, K., Gasparrini, C., Heaviside, C., Lo, E. & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. 2020. Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1113-z

Walker, E., Mitchell, D. & Seviour, W. 2020. The numerous approaches to tracking extratropical cyclones and the challenges they present. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3861

Otto, F.E.L.,…James, R. (11th) et al. 2020. Toward an Inventory of the Impacts of Human-Induced Climate Change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0027.1

Ballinger, T., Hanna, E., Hall, R. et al. 2020. The role of blocking circulation and emerging open water feedbacks on Greenland cold‐season air temperature variability over the last century. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6879

Mitchell, D., Lo, E., Seviour, W., Haimberger, L. & Polvani, L. 2020. The vertical profile of recent tropical temperature trends: Persistent model biases in the context of internal variability. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9af7

Vosper, E., Mitchell, D. & Emanuel, K. 2020. Extreme Hurricane Rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the Paris Agreement Goals. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794

Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Bohnenstengel, S., Collins, M., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G., Joshi, M. & Stott, P. 2020. UK Climate Projections: Summer daytime and night-time urban heat island changes in England’s major cities. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1

Takeshima, A., Kim, H., Shiogama, H., Lierhammer, L., Scinocca, J., Seland, O. & Mitchell, D. 2020. Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5°C  and 2°C warming. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9db3/meta

James, R. et al. 2020. Coupled Climate Model Simulation of Tropical–Extratropical Cloud Bands over Southern Africa.
Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0731.1

Hanna, E., Cappelen, J., Fettweis, X., Mernild, S., Mote, T., Mottram, R., Steffen, K., Ballinger, T. & Hall, R. 2020. Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6771

Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P., Allen, M., Betts, R., Huntingford, C., King, A., Sanderson, B. & Shiogama, H. 2020. Method-uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections. AMS. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee

Overland, J., Hall, R., Hanna, E., Karpechko, A., Vihma, T., Wang, M., Zhang, X. 2020. The Polar Vortex and Extreme Weather: The Beast from the East in Winter 2018. Atmosphere. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060664

Jian, D., Ma, Z., Chen, L., Duan, J., Mitchell, D., Zheng, Z., Lv, M. & Zhang, H. 2020. Effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of Warming on Regional Reference Evapotranspiration and Drying: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6667

Shiogama, H., Hirata, R., Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Ishizaki, N. Chatani, S., Watanabe, M., Mitchell, D. & Lo, E. 2020. Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in Equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Nino events occur. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020

Mechler, R.,…James, R. (6th) et al. Loss and Damage and limits to adaptation: recent IPCC insights and implications for climate science and policy. Sustainability Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00807-9

Scott, R., Seviour, W. & Waugh, D. 2020. Forcing of the Martian polar annulus by Hadley cell transport and latent heating. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3786

Sharkey, J., Teanby, N., Sylvestre, M., Mitchell, D., Seviour, W., Nixon, C. & Irwin, P. 2020. Mapping the Zonal Structure of Titan’s Northern Polar Vortex. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.113441

Kennedy-Asser, A., Andrews, O., Mitchell, D. & Warren, R. 2020. Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad

2019

James, R. et al. 2019. Attribution: How Is It Relevant for Loss and Damage Policy and Practice? Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_5

Mechler, R.,…James, R. (20th) et al. 2019. Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions. Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_1

van der Geest, K.,…James, R. (7th) et al. 2019. The Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services and Resulting Losses and Damages to People and Society. Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_9

Gaupp, F., Hall, J., Mitchell, D. & Dadson, S. 2019. Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2°C global warming. Agricultural Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010

Vosper, E*., Walker, E*., Betts, R., Challinor, A., Fowler, H. & Mitchell. D. 2019. Building a UK Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment Community. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3592 (* Joint first authors)

Seviour, W., et al. 2019. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature response to ozone depletion: A multi-model comparison. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0109.1

Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Bates, P., Sampson, C., Smith, A. & Islam, A. 2019. Enhanced flood risk with 1.5C global warming in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. ERL. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab10ee

Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Huntingford, C. & Uhe, P. 2019. The day the 2003 European heatwave record was broken. The Lancet Planetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30106-8  

Lo, E., Mitchell, D., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Ebi, K., Frumhoff, P., Millar, R., Roberts, W., Sera, F., Sparrow, S., Uhe, P. & Williams, G. 2019. Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances. http://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373 

Huntingford, C., Mitchell, D., Kornhuber, K., Coumou, D., Osprey, S. & Allen, M. 2019. Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world. Atmospheric Science Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.929

Tamoffo, A.T.,…James, R. (4th) et al. 2019. Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under 1.5C and 2C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04751-y

Marthews, T., Jones, R., Dadson, S., Otto, F., Mitchell, D., Guillod, B. & Allen, M. 2019. The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa. JGR Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030085

Madakumbura, G.,…Mitchell, D. (8th) et al. 2019. Event-to-event intensification of hydrologic cycle in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39936-2

2018

Shepherd, T.G.,…James, R. (9th) et al. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9

Huggel, C.,…James, R. (4th) et al. 2018. Loss and Damage in the mountain cryosphere. Regional Environmental Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1385-8

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.,…Mitchell, D. (7th) et al. 2018. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3

Desbiolles, F.,…James, R. (4th) et al. 2018. Upscaling impact of wind/sea surface temperature mesoscale interactions on southern Africa austral summer climate. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5726

Liu, W.,…Mitchell, D. (4th) et al. 2018. Global Freshwater availability below normal conditions and population impact under 1.5˚C and 2˚C stabilization scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters. http://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789

King, A., Donat, M., Lewis, S., Henley, B., Mitchell, D., Stott, P., Fischer, E. & Karoly, D. 2018. Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0191-0

Mitchell, D., et al. 2018. Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1

Baker, H.,…Mitchell, D. (6th), et al. 2018. Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1

Hosking, J., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. & Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78

Pokam Mba, W.,…James, R (5th) et al. 2018. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab048

Li, C.,…Mitchell, D. (13th) et al. 2018. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5°C and 2°C warming and implications for regional impacts. Earth System Dynamics. http://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018

Mitchell, D., et al. 2018. The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.006 

Seneviratne, S.,…Mitchell, D. (16th) et al. 2018. Climate extremes, land– climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0450

Christidis, N., Mitchell, D. & Stott, P. 2018. 2019. Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health. International Journal of Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6104

Wehner, M.,…Mitchell, D. (3rd) et al. 2018. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018

Hirsch, A.,…Mitchell, D. (10th), et al. 2018. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land‐Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low‐Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI‐Land. Earth’s Future. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000744

Zülicke, C., Becker, E., Matthias, V., Peters, D., Schmidt, H., Liu, H., Ramos, L. & and Mitchell, D. 2018. Coupling of Stratospheric Warmings with Mesospheric Coolings in Observations and Simulations. J. Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0047.1

James, R. et al. 2018. Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens. Environmental Research Letters. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/99/2/bams-d-16-0090.1.xml

Grose, M., Black, B., Risbey, J., Uhe, P., Hope, P., Haustein, K. & and Mitchell, D. 2018. Severe Frosts in Western Australia in September 2016. American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0088.1

Hoegh-Guldberg, O.,…Mitchell, D. (contributing author), et al. 2018. Chapter 3 – Impacts of 1.5°C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter3_Low_Res.pdf

2017

Lewis, S., King, A. & Mitchell, D. 2017. Australia’s Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074612

Boyd, E., James, R., Jones, R. et al. 2017. A typology of loss and damage perspectives. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3389

White, C.J.,…James, R. (13th) et al. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1654

James, R. et al. 2017. Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.457

King, A., Knutti, R., Uhe, P., Mitchell, D., Lewis, S., Arblaster, J. & Freychet, N. 2017. On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0649.1

Lewis, S., King, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. & Mitchell, D. 2017. Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5°C and 2°C of global mean warming. Weather and Climate Extremes. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100233