2022, Funded by European Research Council, Bristol PI Dann Mitchell

Stratospheric Nudging And Predictable Surface Impacts (SNAPSI)

SNAPSI is a model intercomparison protocol designed to study the role of the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast models. Based on a set of controlled, sub-seasonal, ensemble forecasts of three recent events, the protocol aims to address four main scientific goals: First, to quantify the impact of improved stratospheric forecasts on near-surface forecast skill. Second, to attribute specific extreme events to stratospheric variability. Third, to assess the mechanisms by which the stratosphere influences the troposphere in the forecast models, and fourth, to investigate the wave processes that lead to the stratospheric anomalies themselves.

Although not a primary focus, the experiments are furthermore expected to shed light on coupling between the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. The output requested will allow for a more detailed, process-based community analysis than has been possible with existing databases of sub-seasonal forecasts.